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This is a series of articles published by Kai Fu Lee. I did the translation after graduation from university in summer to learn more about the technology trend and practise my translation skill.

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Translation of Kaifu Lee’s post on LinkedIn - The amazing China smart phone market

李开复LinkedIn文章翻译之十五 – 神奇的中国智能手机市场

China will be 2x the US smart phone market in a year! Only two years ago, China was a laggard with a tiny portion of the US. What happened?

一年以内中国将是美国智能手机市场的两倍！两年前，中国（市场）还是只有美国（市场）很小一部分的落后者。到底发生了什么？

Originally, China’s market developed more slowly because of two reasons. First, usable 3G networks took much longer to develop than other countries. Second, there are few subsidies in China, so users had to pay one or two month’s salary for an iPhone or Android. These inhibited the growth.

起初，中国的市场开发的缓慢一些，有两个原因：首先，可用的3G网络相比其他国家花了更长时间研发；其次，中国有一些反补贴税，所以用户为买一部iPhone或Android（手机）不得不花一两个月的薪水。这两点都抑制了增长。

But both issues have changed. Broadband wireless is now over 58%, and smart phone prices have dropped to about $100 for an acceptable Android phone, and about $200 for a full-featured Android phone. Smart phones are now spreading like wildfire. About a year ago, there were less than 50M users, basically affluent or tech savvy users who were willing to pay $500 for a phone and $30 a month for 3G. But now, students, young white collar, and even blue collar workers are swarming into the smart phone market!

但这两个问题都已经有所改善。无线宽带现在已经占到58%，一部还可以的智能手机价格也已降到了100美元左右，200美元就可以买一部功能全面的安卓手机了。智能手机已形成燎原之势。大约在一年前，还只有不到五千万的用户，主要都是有钱人和科技弄潮儿，他们愿意花500美元买部手机，30美元一个月用3G网络。但现在，学生，年轻的白领，甚至是蓝领工人都在涌入智能手机的市场！

The figures above shows all numbers are off the charts – Android activations, real usage of applications, broadband usage, and penetration into less developed areas. This year, there will be an installed base of 250M smart phones. Next year, there will be an installed base of 500M smart phones!

以上图标显示所有的数据都在打破记录 - 安卓设备激活量，真实的应用使用量，宽带使用量和对欠发达地区的渗透。今年会有两亿五千万的智能手机用户群。明年就会有五亿的智能手机用户群！

So who will gain from it? Apple will take a healthy and lucrative minority share, just as it does in the US. Microsoft just launched its products in China, though their success remains TBD. Google would have been the big winner, but unfortunately due to the Google-China issues, most Android phones are installed with non-Google services. But app developers, entrepreneurs, some phone and chipset manufacturers (and investors like us) will have a field day!

那么谁会因此得益呢？苹果公司会占一部分健康的、赚钱的较小份额，就像它在美国（市场）那样。微软刚在中国发布它的产品，不过他们是否能成功还有待观察。谷歌会是大赢家，但很不幸的是，因为谷歌和中国（ZF）之间的问题，大部分安卓手机都没被安上谷歌的服务。但应用开发者们，创业者们，一些手机和芯片制造商（以及像我们这样的投资人）都会收获颇丰的！